Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/1155Z from Region 2017 (N10W49). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 30/0434Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2220Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/2121Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at
29/2230Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Apr).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 148
Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 30 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 006/005-010/012-020/028

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/40
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 05/35/60