Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/2313Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 29/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4549 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 096
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 090/095/105
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10