Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/1815Z from Region 2835 (S18W01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul,
02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 30/2058Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 30/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
30/1721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 094
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/012-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/25/40