Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 30/1906Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2229Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 067
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10