Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 30/1843Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/0719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5197 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Jul, 02 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 069
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/15