Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 29/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 072
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 072/072/071
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  006/005-008/012-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/45/20