Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 30/0513Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/1909Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/1858Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2099 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 073
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/012-021/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/40
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/55/55