Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0419Z from Region 2104 (S11E51). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
375 km/s at 29/2139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/2219Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 29/2221Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 141
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 006/005-007/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/20