Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
30/1517Z from Region 1780 (S13W45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul,
02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
601 km/s at 30/1649Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2204Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/2158Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 934 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Jul, 03
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (02 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 103
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 040/066
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 007/008-005/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/05/25