Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 29/0707Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0736Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 066
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-008/008-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/40