Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 30/0025Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7053 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 070
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  010/012-010/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25