Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/2318Z from Region 1800 (S07W95). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jul,
01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
30/0015Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1309Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 906 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (02 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 113
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 004/005-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25