Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/2332Z from Region 2936 (N17E05). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 30/0159Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Feb) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (02 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 130
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 132/132/135
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 006/005-010/015-028/045

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/25
Minor Storm 01/30/40
Major-severe storm 01/15/30
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/70/85