Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 29/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 074
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 074/074/072
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 007/008-013/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/30
Minor Storm 05/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/60/40