Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 30/1810Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/1624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 074
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10