Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/0611Z from Region 2733 (N04W89). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 326 km/s at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1563 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 074
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 073/071/072
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/020-014/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/55/30
