Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 30/0816Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0558Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 069
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15