Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 30/1751Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1773 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 077
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 076/075/075
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  020/025-015/020-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    70/60/40