Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 310 km/s at 30/0031Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/0823Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 105
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/35