Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 30/1216Z from Region 2277 (N08E47). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/2153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1540Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 159
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/018-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
