Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
30/1611Z from Region 1967 (S14E41). It also produced a Type II (2161
km/s) radio emission, a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a coronal mass ejection
which may have an Earth-directed component. Analysis is underway.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 30/0544Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0203Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02
Feb). However, the potential for a glancing blow as early as Day 2 (01
Feb) from the CME described above could push the geomagnetic field to
unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for a minor (G1) storm
period. Well refrain from adding that to this forecast until after we
have examined the WSA-Enlil model output.

III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 161
Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 165/170/175
90 Day Mean 30 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 005/012-006/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05