Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 30/1253Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 405 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 083
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 009/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10