Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 30/1419Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0445Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4040 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 069
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  009/010-006/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20