Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 29/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11342 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 074
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 075/075/074
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  015/020-015/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    55/30/40