Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 30/0646Z from Region 2251 (S09E18). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 766 km/s at 30/0512Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/2226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 695 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 130
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
