Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/2233Z from Region 1936 (S16W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at
30/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1415Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0807Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/2200Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (01 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jan).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (31 Dec) and day two (01 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 15/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 143
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 143

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 006/005-009/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 05/15/30