Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 29/2131Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0555Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2801 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Aug, 02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 070
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 009/010-012/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/30