Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 30/2036Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/1523Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 067
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 024/035-023/030-016/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 25/40/15
Major-severe storm 10/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/75/45