Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 29/2128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 30/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 56173 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 068
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10