Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/1845Z from Region 2674 (N14E64). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 30/0012Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0112Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Aug 087
Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 089/091/091
90 Day Mean        30 Aug 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  021/030-023/035-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           30/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20