Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 30, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/1006Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (01 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 30/1858Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/1348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 05/10/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 100
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 016/018-011/015-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.