Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/0330Z from Region 2403 (S15W89). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (31 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 510 km/s at 29/2302Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1552 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 40/01/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 092
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 009/008-014/020-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/45/45
Minor Storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/70/70