Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
30/0246Z from Region 1836 (N11E30). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Aug,
01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
30/1532Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1034Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (02 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 108
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 105/108/108
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 016/020-018/025-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/35
Minor Storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/70/45