Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 April 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 30/1347Z from Region 2994 (N15, L=106) beyond the west limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (01 May) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (02 May) and likely to be low on day three (03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 30/1621Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/0019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0023Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 29/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1061 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (01 May, 02 May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 35/15/01
Class X 15/01/01
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 120
Predicted 01 May-03 May 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 012/015-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor Storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 45/45/20
