Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (03 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 349 km/s at 29/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/1712Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 May).

III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 069
Predicted 01 May-03 May 068/068/070
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/010-014/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/25