Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 30/1135Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1265 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 070
Predicted   01 May-03 May 070/069/068
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/15/10