Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at 30/2021Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/1640Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 102
Predicted 01 May-03 May 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
