Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0620Z from Region 2049 (S07E29). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May,
02 May, 03 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 330 km/s at 30/2049Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1946Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/1307Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 May) and quiet levels on day three (03 May).

III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 124
Predicted 01 May-03 May 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 014/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/05
Minor Storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/55/05