Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 02/2136Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16537 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 068
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  006/005-006/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20