Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
03/1354Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep,
06 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
479 km/s at 03/0551Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2041Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1944Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
03/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3069 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep)
and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 138
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 007/010-007/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/20