Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1751Z from Region 1834 (N11W60). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 485 km/s at
03/2030Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/1117Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2444 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (04 Sep, 06 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 106
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 006/005-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25