Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0722Z from Region 2877 (S21W93). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 03/0335Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 142 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 086
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/25