Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lo on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 504 km/s at 03/0036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23377 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 072
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10