Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 03/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5991 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Oct, 05 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (06 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 068
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 007/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/15