Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 02/2226Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/2012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 996 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 068
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/30/10