Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 03/1812Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1609Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0438Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (06 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 088
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 011/015-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10