Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 3, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/0633Z from Region 2422 (S20W89). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 461 km/s at 03/0500Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/1314Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (04 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 097
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 025/033-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 65/35/25

SpaceRef staff editor.