Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
03/0648Z from Region 2173 (S13W99). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
402 km/s at 02/2330Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2255Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/2134Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 624 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 35/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 137
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 013/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/25