Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (04 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 773 km/s at 03/2059Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 03/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 03/2033Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 03/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 089
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 024/035-017/022-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor Storm 45/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 75/55/55