Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 03/0424Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 03/0932Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 637 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Nov, 05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 083
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25